Math problem: Flyers need more than just wins to reach playoff goal

PHILADELPHIA -- Believe it or not, most Flyers fans want to see the Flyers make the playoffs. 

There is no scientific poll for me to make such bold statement, and if you spend too much time on social media, you'd think I were crazy, but the proof is in the pudding. 

There were 18,969 fans at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Thursday to watch the Flyers defeat the Chicago Blackhawks 5-1. 

It wasn't exactly a sellout, but it was an impressive crowd nonetheless considering:

1.  Chicago is a bad, non-conference opponent
2.  The Flyers entered the game five points out of a playoff spot with a dozen games to play.
3.  A total of 44,610 of their ilk were across the street for Opening Day of the Phillies season at Citizens Bank Park for a game that ended just as the Flyers game was about to begin. 

Now, there was some crossover. There were roughly 1,000 Phillies shirts mingled in with the Flyers crowd, meaning a good number of people decided to make it a Philly sports day and do the doubleheader (as yours truly did), but the point is, if the Flyers weren't an interesting team right now, and if there wasn't this sliver of hope they could actually end a five-year drought and make the playoffs, it's unlikely that the arena would be that full. 

Two big points with five electric goals. ⚡️#CHIvsPHI | @Ticketmaster pic.twitter.com/b5VK9SdDbr

— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) March 27, 2026

After all, we've seen it in the past. In recent years, when the Flyers were simply playing out the string in late March, the building was at half capacity for home games. 

So there is some juice. 

And as was unearthed in a poll by Kevin Kurz at The Athletic recently, and we discussed twice on both the Press Row Show on Tuesday and on Snow the Goalie on Wednesday (yes, we admit that we got a lot of mileage out of another outlet's work), 59% of fans (based on the more than 2,700 who answered the poll) think the Flyers are headed in the right direction.

The fans are starved for playoff hockey. It's in the Flyers fan's DNA - at least those who remember the halcyon days when a trip to the playoffs was an annual ritual. 

Flyers fans haven't witnessed a playoff game, in-person, since April, 2018. The only time they've made it since was in the COVID bubble in Toronto after the 2019-2020 season. 

So, yes, they want it. And they want it now, if possible. 

But what does that path look like? How could the Flyers, a team five points out with only 11 games remaining on their schedule and three teams to leapfrog, possibly get in?

Well, there are a couple of paths, and they are all treacherously narrow. 

First and foremost, because the Flyers have made a living out of getting to overtime -- 25 of their 71 games so far this season have gone past regulation, most in the Eastern Conference and third-most in the NHL (Los Angeles - 28, Minnesota - 27) -- they lose tiebreakers to every team they are racing in the playoff chase.

The first tiebreaker in the NHL at the end of the season is regulation wins. The Flyers currently have 22, the sixth-fewest in the NHL. And when you look at all the teams the Flyers are trying to beat out for the playoffs, they aren't passing any of them, barring a miracle:

REGULATION WINS (Through games of March 26)

1. Ottawa - 32

2. Washington - 31

3. Boston - 29

4. Pittsburgh - 29

5. Detroit - 27

6. Columbus - 27

7. New York Islanders - 27

8. FLYERS - 22

So, that means the Flyers have to finish ahead of teams in points, and not tied with them, to earn a playoff spot, making this that much more difficult. 

Of those eight teams, four are going to make the playoffs - two as the second and third place teams in the mediocre Metropolitan Division (apologies to Carolina, who will easily win the Met) and two Wild Card teams. 

(Technically, Montreal, who is in third place in the Atlantic Division, could still be caught by a current team on the outside looking in -- for example, Ottawa is only four points back of the 90-point Canadiens -- However, the Flyers are eight points behind the Habs with no games in hand, so I am not including them in this exercise). 

And while the tiebreaker conundrum makes it harder for the Flyers the one thing that helps them is that they have played fewer games than six of the seven teams they are chasing, and the one they haven't -- Detroit -- they play three times in the final 11 games, so the head-to-head opportunity to pass them exists. 

So, the Flyers need to win their games in hand. That's a given. It inches them closer. But they need a lot more, too. 

What's the target? 

Well, 97 points, at minimum. If they can get to 98 points, that's a better shot (but still not guaranteed).

Which means to have a decent chance, the Flyers can do no worse that 15 points over their final 11 games. Anything less than that, and they are almost definitely missing the playoffs for a sixth straight year. 

There are several records that get you to 15 points in 11 games. One of them is going 7-3-1. 

Is that doable? Yes. But it won't be easy. 

Eight of those 11 games are against teams currently with better records than them. 

Additionally, six of them are against teams they are in this playoff race with -- three with the Red Wings and one each against Washington, Boston and the New York Islanders. 

Of those six, four are on the road, and while that might be a negative for most teams, this Flyers team is strangely better on the road than at home. 

They have won seven straight road games, and are 19-12-4 on the road this season as compared to 16-12-8 at home. 

For the sake of argument, let's say the Flyers do find a way to go 7-3-1 in these last 11 games. In doing that, they will have gone 17-7-2 after the Olympic break, which would certainly be one of the best marks in the league. 

But even that might not be enough. 

It could be if the following things happen (note, this is just one scenario I played out. There are others, but they all have very similar requirements for the Flyers to make it).

If:

• Pittsburgh goes 4-4-2
• Columbus goes 6-3-1
• Boston goes 2-5-3
• New York goes 4-4-1
• Ottawa goes 4-3-3
• Detroit goes 5-4-2
• Washington goes 5-3-1

Then the Flyers would make it as a Wild Card team. 

Now, I played out the games remaining for every team and gave an honest prediction on each game. When I did, the Flyers just missed the playoffs by one point. 

I had to make two tweaks to other outcomes, to make it happen.

And none of the tweaks were to Boston, mind you, who is obviously the team in this scenario who has the biggest collapse down the stretch. They just seem to have the toughest overall schedule of all the teams (Minnesota, Columbus twice, Dallas, Tampa twice, Carolina, and the Flyers), have a stretch of 6 of 8 on the road and play three back-to-backs. 

This is just insanity. Any of these teams lose a regulation game and they have a chance of dropping to 9th. Just wild stuff pic.twitter.com/AmSxdvAifc

— Jake (@_j_a_k_e_d) March 27, 2026

But looking at those records for the other seven teams, what stands out is the Flyers need one of them to really struggle (Boston in my scenario), and four of them to play right around .500 hockey. 

It's a lot to ask, but there are 15 games remaining where two of these teams (including the Flyers) play each other. Assuming teams beat up on each other and play tight games with an uptick in loser points, it's not outside the realm of possibility for that much mediocrity at such a crucial stage of the season. 

Still, it is like threading a needle with a shoelace. It's going to be a tight squeeze. 

It's why Moneypuck has the Flyers current playoff odds at just 12.6%.

The Flyers have made this bed, though. As well as they've played since the Olympic break, overcoming a stretch in January and early February where they went 3-8-4 may prove insurmountable. 

Had they even been able to convert two of those losses to wins, we're having a much different conversation today. 

And it's also why Tuesday's loss to Columbus hurt so much. Had they won that one, they'd currently be two points out with one game in hand. 

It's a big, big difference. 

But that's only something for us to dwell on. They moved past it pretty nicely and put together a complete game against the Blackhawks on Thursday. But a big weekend looms. 

The first of those three games against the Red Wings is Saturday in Detroit. Then they come right back to face a very good Dallas team on Sunday at home. 

By the time we go to sleep Sunday night, we'll have a lot more clarity on this whole situation as to whether they still have a realistic chance or not. The Flyers though, have to stick to cliches at this point - they have no other choice. 

One game at a time. One period at a time. One shift at a time. Control what they can control and let the chips fall where they may. 

It may not mean anything at the end of the day, but there is no other way for them to approach these final 11 games.