May 6, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Matt Strahm (25) reacts after beating the Tampa Bay Rays in the ninth inning at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
There's no doubt that changes are coming for the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason.
But it seems like all the conversation about those changes, to this point, have focused on the lineup and position players.
With the exception of discussing the impact of possibly losing Ranger Suarez, who is a free agent, not much has been talked about change from a pitching perspective.
It's understandable. Pitching is the Phillies strength, so why would you weaken it by changing it?
Fair.
Still, it got me thinking recently, is there a direction the Phillies could go this offseason that would see them move off a pitcher that is widely considered to be safe and part of the 2026 team?
I had a hard time coming up with a scenario at first, and then it hit me - yes. In the bullpen.
The Phillies picked up the $9 million option on reliever Jose Alvarado yesterday. That presumably gives them three left-handed relievers going into next season - Alvarado, Matt Strahm, and Tanner Banks.
Couple that with Jhoan Duran and Orion Kerkering, and you can see why the Phillies would think that's a good place to start from, bullpen-wise, heading into the 2026 offseason.
But there was one thing lacking for the Phillies bullpen - especially in the playoffs.
Swing and miss.
Not having Alvarado for a majority of the 2025 season and the playoffs thanks to his PED suspension and a late-season forearm strain had a lot to do with that, but it wasn't just his absence that was an issue.
Aside from Duran and Kerkering, the Phillies sorely lacked high end relievers who throw with velocity.
Only two teams had a worse whiff rate out of their bullpen than the Phillies in 2025. That's part of why the Phillies bullpen was so inconsistent throughout the year.
So, maybe they look to change that mix.
With Alvarado back and Tanner Banks coming off a career year, could the Phillies potentially look to move Strahm and replace him with a more high velocity arm?
It's not out of the question.
Strahm has been a reliable, often excellent part of that Phillies bullpen the past three years. He pitches with an edge - and you need guys like that on your team.
He has guile and guts, and that's a needed part of the makeup of any reliever.
Matt Strahm FROZE Shohei Ohtani! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/OD0HXHNmaR
In his time with the Phillies he's been an All-Star and in the regular season has posted a 2.71 ERA, a 0.955 WHIP and an ERA+ of 159, meaning that he's been 59% better than the average major league reliever over that time.
You can't ask for more out of a guy. Those are sensational numbers.
In the playoffs though, it's been a little different story. Yes, it's a small sample, but everything is heightened and scrutinized more closely in the playoffs.
He's appeared in 13 playoff games for the Phillies. He's tossed 9 2/3 innings and has allowed five runs on nine hits and two walks with just eight strikeouts. That's a 4.66 ERA and a 1.138 WHIP.
It was his missed location that resulted in Teoscar Hernandez's three-run homer that decided the critical Game 1 of the NLDS this season.
LAD - Teoscar Hernández 3-run HR (3)
🏆🍁 NLDS Game 1 🍁🏆
📏 394 ft | 💨 102.9 mph | 📐 36°
⚾️ 91.8 mph four-seam fastball (PHI - LHP Matt Strahm)
🏟️ Out in 23/30 MLB parks
LAD (5) @ PHI (3)
🔺 7th#LetsGoDodgers #Postseason pic.twitter.com/eCkB5CjCVl
When Strahm reached 60 innings pitched in September, it triggered the fourth year of his contract for 2026 at a $7.5 million price tag. He turns 34 next week. The Phillies also have a team option on him for 2027.
Two years of control could be enticing to a team looking for a high-end lefty reliever.
It could also give the Phillies a little bit of financial flexibility in the bullpen to seek a younger and more affordable relief arm - or two.
And not only younger, but relievers who throw harder.
Strahm's average fastball velocity of 92.3 MPH ranked in just the 20th percentile among major league pitchers. His whiff rate of 23.8% was in the 37th percentile.
The Phillies need more than that out of high leverage arms.
That said, Strahm is such a smart pitcher that he is among the best relievers in the sport in getting batters to chase pitches out of the strike zone.
His chase rate of 33.3% is among the top seven percent of pitchers in all of baseball.
Matt Strahm strikes out the side! pic.twitter.com/gD2MUdMTuk
So it's a matter of possibilities.
Can the Phillies add more swing and miss to their pen and still keep Strahm? That might be the most ideal scenario, but is it realistic?
If not, maybe the Phillies use Strahm as an attractive carrot to dangle at teams looking for consistent relief from the left side, and the Phillies look to improve their bullpen by subtracting from it first.
There's no guarantee of either at this point, which means all options are on the table.
If I had to make a prediction right now, I'd say Strahm is back, and it would be hard to criticize the Phillies for going to that well again considering his track record.
But it would be equally as hard to criticize them for moving him to get younger and more velocity out in the bullpen as well.
It's going to be an edge-of-your-seat offseason for the Phillies in so many ways. How they decided to move forward with their bullpen will be just another riveting part of it.
