May 7, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins relief pitcher Jhoan Duran (59) delivers a pitch against the Baltimore Orioles in the ninth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Jesse Johnson
Matt Gelb of The Athletic penned a piece Thursday that's sure to shape discourse surrounding the Phillies in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. The full article is worth a subscription and a read.
In the story, Gelb says that Dave Dombrowski and company are still unwilling to trade Andrew Painter. However, Gelb also added that the Phillies "sound more willing to trade bigger prospect chips for controllable big leaguers, especially a shutdown, late-inning reliever."
Gelb pointed to a pair of fading AL Central teams with great bullpen talent — the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins — as being worth watching in the coming weeks.
With all that said, here's a look at the options from both bullpens, along with an assessment of who would fit best for the Phillies.
By far the most famous name on this list, Clase won the Mariano Rivera Award as the AL's best reliever last season, recording 47 saves and posting a minuscule 0.61 ERA. One of the great relief seasons in MLB history allowed him to finish third in AL Cy Young Award voting.
Clase hasn't been as dominant in 2025, as he has a 3.12 ERA in 41 games this season. With that said, he had a nightmarish March/April that saw him post a 6.75 ERA. Since then, he has 1.33 ERA over 27 innings of work.
Considering the goal in acquiring someone like Clase would be to win a World Series, it's fair to point out that he melted down in the playoffs last year, posting a 9.00 ERA in seven games. But he posted a 0.00 ERA in four relief appearances in the 2022 playoffs. It's possible that the Guardians overused him last year to make up for their lack of impact starting pitching. The Phillies — who have a rotation that's tracking as one of the better ones of all time — could manage his workload better to keep him fresh for the playoffs.
What makes Clase even more attractive is that he's signed to one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball. He's making just $4.9 million in 2025. If he was a free agent after this year, he'd probably get a deal in the neighborhood of five years and $100 million. But Clase is due to make $6.4 million in 2026, with matching $10 million club options for 2027 and 2028. So the Phillies would basically be getting him for a three-year, $26.4 million contract.
So why would the Guardians trade the 27-year-old? This would essentially be like the Milwaukee Brewers trading Josh Hader in 2022, trying to maximize his value to fill other holes on the team, knowing that they would still have multiple arms capable of stepping in and pitching in the ninth inning.
Over on Bleacher Report, I wrote that a trade package led by SS Aidan Miller, RHP Mick Abel and RHP Jean Cabrera could potentially be enticing to the Guards.
It’s going to be really difficult for Dave Dombrowksi to overhaul the bullpen during the season.
I discussed that in the latest episode of Phillies Stoplight 🚦@OnPattison
pic.twitter.com/232h5elAdB
Since entering the league in 2022, Durán has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. He's continued that in 2023, recording 14 saves and 16 attempts and posting a 1.52 ERA over 42 games.
If you want someone with electric stuff, Durán certainly fits that bill. His repertoire includes a 100.2 mph fourseam fastball, a 97.5 mph cutter, a knuckle curve and a slider. He's electric, although with any pitcher that throws that hard, there is injury risk.
Durán, 27, is making $4.125 million this season, and then has two additional years of arbitration before he would be eligible to be a free agent. So, if acquired, you would have Durán for three pennant races.
It would likely take a similar package to acquire Durán as it would with Clase.
If Clase is Hader, that would probably make Smith Devin Williams. And it could mean that the Guardians are even more protective of Smith in trade talks.
Smith was part of one of the best bullpens of all time a season ago, posting a 1.91 ERA and 1.40 FIP in 74 games. He finished ninth in AL Cy Young Award voting, a remarkable accomplishment for any reliever, let alone one in his rookie season.
The 26-year-old has a 3.08 ERA in 40 games this year for the Guardians, but both his 2.57 expected ERA and 2.01 FIP suggest he's been even better than that.
Cade Smith, Domination.
Cade the Side in the 6th. pic.twitter.com/7FSCAv4zEe
He doesn't throw as hard as Durán, as his fastball averages a mere 96.3 mph. But with a three-pitch mix of fastball, splitter and slider, Smith has a 14.0 K/9 this season, as opposed to 8.9 from Clase and 9.8 from Durán.
Smith doesn't have the same type of closing experience that either Clase or Durán does, though there's every reason to believe he could be an All-Star level closer if given the chance. That chance might come in the second half of this season if the Guardians trade Clase. Still, Smith — who won't even become arbitration eligible until 2027 — is worth checking in on.
It probably wouldn't surprise you that since the start of the 2022 season, a Twins reliever is second to Clase in terms of WAR among all relievers. It likely would surprise you that the reliever who fits that description is Jax, not Durán. According to FanGraphs, Jax's 6.1 WAR since the start of 2022 trails only Clase's 7.3.
Jax's back-of-the-baseball card numbers might not jump off the page this year, as he has a 4.12 ERA in 42 appearances for the Twins. But that's a bit misleading, because he gave up seven earned runs between two April appearances. He's given up 18 total the entire season. Jax has a 3.10 expected ERA and 1.92 FIP, both metrics that are usually better at indicating future performance than ERA.
Griffin Jax, Vicious 3227 RPM Sweeper. 😤 pic.twitter.com/UpM1xamwXC
For a reliever, Jax has a pretty wide arsenal of pitches. His most commonly used ones are his sweeper, changeup and 97.1 mph fastball. He also mixes in a sinker, cutter and curveball. He has a 14.6 K/9 this season.
Jax is a bit older at 30, but has two remaining years of arbitration after this, so he's basically in the same situation contractually as Durán. He recorded 10 saves in Durán's absence last year, and could certainly thrive in the closer's role if given the chance.
Gaddis was lights out a year ago, and has struggled to replicate that this season.
In 2024, Gaddis posted a 1.57 ERA and 2.82 FIP across 78 appearances. This year, he's got a 3.79 ERA, and unlike someone like Jax, his 3.92 expected ERA and 3.80 FIP suggest that he's just been underwhelming.
The 27-year-old won't be eligible for arbitration until 2027, and given how well he pitched last season, Cleveland should still feel pretty good about him moving forward. But if the Phillies are looking for a sure thing to pitch the ninth inning, Gaddis probably isn't the right fit.
Varland is difficult to evaluate because a year ago he posted a 7.61 ERA in 16 games for the Twins, seven of which were starts. But he's been tremendous as a full-time reliever in 2025, with a 1.91 ERA and 2.87 FIP across an AL-best 44 appearances.
He primarily utilizes a 98.1 mph fastball and a knuckle curve, though his arsenal does also include a sinker, slider and changeup.
Varland is an arm that seems to have found a permanent home in the bullpen, and his ascension perhaps makes it an easier for the Twins to consider trading Durán and/or Jax. But even though he can't become a free agent until after the 2030 season, Varland probably doesn't have enough of a track record to be the guy for the Phillies this summer.
The three names that make the most sense from the AL Central for the Phillies are Clase, Durán and Jax. If the Phillies get any of those three, it will massively improve their bullpen.
Obviously, Clase and Durán will bring the most excitement because they are established closers. Between Clase's track record and his laughably team-friendly contract, he probably is the best fit.
But we might lean Jax over Durán. And if the price to acquire Jax — who is striking out hitters at a higher clip than the other two — is significantly lower than Clase or Durán, perhaps he would be the best investment. It would be a full-circle moment if Jax ended up on the Phillies because he was a 12th-round pick by them in 2013 before instead electing to attend the Air Force Academy.
Smith might have the best long-term outlook here, but we're going to assume the price to land him will be prohibitive.
