Jul 2, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez (61) throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres during the fourth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
We've heard a lot of praise for the Phillies starting pitching this season - and deservedly so.
That group is why the Phillies are in first place with a record of 51-36 heading into Independence Day weekend.
Of those 87 games, Phillies starters have yielded two runs or fewer in 61 of them (70.1%).
That's pretty darn good, but how good?
I was wondering that myself.
So I decided to do a little experiment. The Phillies lead all of baseball in starting pitching WAR this season. According to Fangraphs, their starting pitching WAR is 11.6. The next closest team isn't all that close. It's Texas at 8.9.
As such, the Phillies starters are on pace for one of the best seasons of the past 50 years.
I went back and looked at the top 10 seasons by WAR for starting staffs from 1975-2024.
Then, after looking at those seasons, I went back and looked at the top four pitchers in the rotation for each of those top 10 staffs, and where they were entering games on July 3 each season.
Where do the 2025 Phillies fit in? Let's find out in countdown fashion.
Here are those Top 10 full season staffs, and where they were at this point in those seasons. I'll slot in the 2025 Phillies where it makes the most sense statistically.
11. 1988 New York Mets
22.2 WAR, 33 Wins, 16 Losses, 2.79 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 448 1/3 IP, 345K 25HR
The Mets actually had five regular pitchers in their rotation, but for the purposes of our study, we only looked at the top four. Both David Cone (2.15 ERA; 1.126 WHIP) and Dwight Gooden (2.90; 1.130) were All-Stars. Cone eventually would finish third in the N.L. Cy Young race.
6/13/1988 David Cone throws ten innings of one-run ball to lower his season ERA to 1.81. In the twelfth, Lee Mazzilli wins the game for the Mets with an RBI single.@dcone36 pic.twitter.com/inj13BdWvx
Ron Darling had a 2.56 ERA on July 3, but his WHIP was high at 1.492. Sid Fernandez was used in this sample (3.71; 1.129) But Bob Ojeda (3.48; 1.050) had similar numbers. Fernandez just finished the season as the better of the two. These Mets finished the season 100-60 (two rainouts were never made up) and the won the N.L. East going away before falling in an epic seven-game NLCS to the eventual World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
10. 2017 Cleveland Indians
22.2 WAR, 27 Wins, 14 Losses, 3.83 ERA, 1.151 WHIP, 319 2/3 IP, 366K, 41HR
This may be the most unlikely group of starters on this list. The Tribe had an incredible second half of the season in 2017. They were just 44-37 on July 3, 2017. They went 58-23 thereafter. The second half was all buoyed by great pitching. Corey Kluber - who went on to win the A.L. Cy Young Award, leading the league in pitching WAR, wins, winning percentage, ERA, complete games, shutouts, ERA+, WHIP and K/BB ratio - was good in the first half, but not phenomenal (3.02; 0.996).
Corey Kluber, 86mph Changeup. The Indians crew enjoyed it, in unison. pic.twitter.com/wVpS6nMwTd
Carlos Carrasco (3.50, 1.055 in the first half) would finish fourth in the Cy Young voting. Trevor Bauer's first half was rough (5.24; 1.380) and good luck figuring out who the fourth starter was. Mike Clevinger was good in the first half (3.33; 1.185), so I used his stats, but Cleveland leaned on Josh Tomlin and Danny Salazar too. None of the six starters amassed 100 innings by July 3 - the only team on this list who didn't. As hot as this team was in the second half, they succumbed to the New York Yankees in the ALDS in a five-game dogfight.
9. 1999 Atlanta Braves
22.8 WAR, 32 Wins, 18 Losses, 3.67 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 417 1/3 IP, 288K, 35 HR
Get used to seeing the Braves on this list. It should be noted up front that Atlanta led the majors in starting pitching WAR for nine consecutive seasons from 1992-2000. This was all because of three guys - Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz. In 1999, Smoltz had the best numbers on July 3 (3.03; 1.023) but it was Kevin Millwood (3.56, 1.188) who was their lone All-Star. Maddux (3.66, 1.381) and Glavine (4.25, 1.100) had "down" first halves of the season. But they were still great enough to carry the Braves to a 103-59 record, the N.L. East crown and the National League pennant before getting swept by the Yankees in the World Series.
8. 2013 Detroit Tigers
23.1 WAR, 32 Wins, 15 Losses, 3.39 ERA, 1.163WHIP, 406IP, 430K, 28HR
Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski frequently refers to building this team. A lot of what you see with the current Phillies is relatable. Some big money players in the every day lineup, a stellar starting rotation, and a shaky bullpen. But man, was that starting staff good. Max Scherzer (12-0, 3.10 ERA, 0.897 WHIP on July 3) was an All-Star and would later go on to win the A.L. Cy Young Award.
#OTD in 2013, Max Scherzer took matters into his own hands to preserve the Tigers’ lead in Game 4 of the ALDS.
Some day we’ll get back to this. pic.twitter.com/cljz1cIdSq
Justin Verlander (3.77; 1.400) was an All-Star, despite the rockier start. Anibal Sanchez (2.76; 1.151) was an underrated weapon who finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. Doug Fister (3.80, 1.211) was a very good No. 4. And although he wasn't included in this data set, Rick Porcello was maybe the best No. 5 in baseball in 2013. This group, along with MVP Miguel Cabrera, led the Tigers to a 93-69 record and the A.L. Central crown. After knocking off Oakland in a tough five-game series in the ALDS, the Tigers fell to the eventual World Champion Boston Red Sox in the ALCS in six games.
7. 2003 New York Yankees
23.8 WAR, 37 Wins, 18 Losses, 3.69 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, 437 IP, 369K, 46HR
This was a rotation of workhorses, which is how they built up their WAR. Roger Clemens (3.36 ERA; 1.148 WHIP) was the lone All-Star, but it was a rotation full of big names as joining the Rocket was Mike Mussina (3.29; 1.061), David Wells (3.40; 1.109) and Andy Pettitte, who overcame a rough first half (4.78; 1.426) to actually finish sixth in A.L. Cy Young voting. This was pretty much nearing the end of the line for this Yankees dynasty. They won the A.L. East with a record of 101-61, and advanced the World Series where they would be upset in six games by the Florida Marlins. They made it back to the ALCS the next season where they infamously blew a 3-0 lead to the Red Sox, and then the seas of change began.
6. 2002 Arizona Diamondbacks
23.8 WAR, 36 Wins, 17 Losses, 3.59 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 448 1/3 IP, 457K, 55HR
Coming off a World Championship the year before, the Diamondbacks of this era were all about two guys - Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. They were the reason the Snakes upset the Yankees in seven games in 2001, and they were the reason Arizona had one of the best staffs of the past half century a year later. In 2002 they finished 1-2 in the N.L. Cy Young race. Johnson (12-3, 2.46 ERA, 1.056 WHIP on July 3) put together one of the most dominant seasons ever by a starter...
September 9, 2002: Arizona #Diamondbacks SP Randy Johnson extended his own MLB record with 300 Ks for the 5th consecutive season
pic.twitter.com/v1RyrEQ2yx
... while Schilling (3.22; 0.891) had the best WHIP and K/BB ratio in the game. They were such a dominant 1-2 punch that it hardly matters who else was in the rotation, but for this exercise, Miguel Batista (5.03; 1.421) and Rick Helling (4.37; 1.185) were included. But those guys could have been you and me, and this group would still be among the best of the past 50 years. Arizona finished 98-64 and won the N.L. West, but were surprisingly swept in three games in the NLDS by the St. Louis Cardinals.
5. 1998 Atlanta Braves
24.4 WAR, 41 Wins, 15 Losses, 2.92 ERA, 1.124WHIP, 474 1/3 IP, 368K, 45 HR
4. 1996 Atlanta Braves
24.6 WAR, 37 Wins, 21 Losses, 3.14 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 499IP, 422K, 36HR
3. 1997 Atlanta Braves
25.4 WAR, 38 Wins, 15 Losses, 2.78 ERA, 1.111 WHIP, 505 2/3 IP, 352K. 29 HR
These guys again. And again. And again.
It's hard to really put into words just how dominant a staff this was for a decade. We may never see this again.
In 1998, the first half was dominated by Maddux (1.54 ERA, 0.875 WHIP). And even though he would go on to finish the year leading the N.L. in both ERA and WHIP, he finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. That's because Glavine would win it, and he had a consistently excellent season from start to finish (2.71; 1.255 on July 3). Smoltz was injured for part of the year, so he wasn't included in the 1998 data. Instead it was Millwood (4.78, 1.281) and Denny Neagle (3.46; 1.184) who kept the butter churning. These Braves won the N.L. East at 106-56, and after sweeping the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS, were stunned in the NLCS, getting upset by the San Diego Padres in six games.
And after that season, Maddux and Glavine made one of the best sports commercials of all-time:
Chicks dig the long ball. One of the greatest commercials ever made. pic.twitter.com/IDJz07s5Og
Smoltz was the Cy Young in 1996, and he was their best pitcher on July 3 (14-3, 2.98 ERA, 0.946 WHIP). Maddux (2.95; 1.049) and Glavine (2.62, 1.277) were both All-Stars with Smoltz. The fourth guy in this season was Steve Avery (4.07; 1.339) This team was coming off the lone World Championship of the era of Atlanta dominance, and won the N.L. East at 96-66. After sweeping the Dodgers in the Division Series and winning a seven-game war with the Cardinals in the NLCS, the Braves succumbed to the Yankees in the Fall Classic in six games in the beginning of the Yankees dynasty.
In 1997, Maddux (2.36; 0.931 on July 3) was the eventual Cy Young runner-up, and Neagle was third as part of a career-year for him (3.14; 1.151). And then there was those other guys putting up ho-hum first half numbers - Glavine (2.57; 1.159) and Smoltz (3.03; 1.201). Unsurprisingly, the Braves won the N.L. East at 101-61, but after sweeping the Houston Astros in the NLDS, they were upset by the upstart Florida Marlins in the NLCS in six games. Those Marlins would go on to be the fastest expansion team on the four major sports to win a championship when they upset the Cleveland Indians in the World Series that went to extra innings in Game 7.
Note: Check out this great documentary about the end of that game. It has nothing to do with this list, but it's an all-time baseball story:)
2. 2025 Philadelphia Phillies
TBA WAR, 29 Wins, 11 Losses, 2.75 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, 380 IP, 422K, 29 HR
You might assume some bias here since we cover the Phillies at On Pattison, but there is none. Using the parameters outlined above, this collection of four starting pitchers - Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo - have had a better statistical season up until July 3rd than any of the Top 10 full-season WAR leading teams of the past 50 years, except one (which will get to shortly).
Of the 11 teams on this list, the 2025 Phillies are second in ERA, second in WHIP, tied for third in strikeouts, and tied for fourth in fewest home runs allowed.
Also note that they are only one of two teams (2017 Indians) from the last dozen years to make the list - mostly because of a deemphasis on starting pitching in baseball.
But what they are doing is otherworldly. Wheeler (2.27; 0.907), Sanchez (2.68; 1.132) and Suarez (2.00; 1.000) should all be locks for the All-Star Game. The trio make up three of the top five spots in the N.L. in pitching WAR. (Wheeler is tied for first with Paul Skenes, Sanchez is third, and Suarez is fifth).
I still can’t believe that Cristopher Sanchez signed this deal. What a bargain.
2025: $1.5 Million
2026: $3.0 Million
2027: $6.0 Million
2028: $9.0 Million
2029: $14.0 Million (or $1 Million Buyout)
2030: $15.0 Million (or $1 Million Buyout)pic.twitter.com/oYZ7UsSxXp
Then there's Jesus Luzardo (4.06; 1.406) who would be a lock to be an All-Star as well and was leading the WAR race until last month when he had a historically bad two starts.
Still, what you are experiencing is nothing short of amazing with these starters. Remember the stat I started with about 61 of 87 games where a starter has given up two runs or less? These four guys account for 48 of them.
Can they keep it up? We'll see. No team on this list finished with fewer than 93 wins, so that's a good start. They all won a division, so that's good for the Phillies too. The interesting thing to note, though, is that all of these great staffs being listed - none of them actually won a championship in these historically great seasons. They may have won in less-historically great years, but not those highlighted here. I guess that might be a bad omen for the 2025 Phillies. It sure was for the team that's No. 1 on this list:
1. 2011 Philadelphia Phillies
27.0 WAR, 33 Wins, 18 Losses, 2.70ERA, 1.064 WHIP, 445 2/3 IP, 402K, 28HR
I likely don't have to remind you about the four aces. The season that should have been. But this staff was incredible. No staff in the past 50 years was as utterly unhittable as the 2011 Phillies.
Roy Halladay (2.44 ERA, 1.029 WHIP on July 3) finished second in Cy Young voting. Cliff Lee (2.66; 1.066) finished third. Cole Hamels (2.41; 0.940) finished fifth. All three were All-Stars. Roy Oswalt was the only one that didn't live up to complete expectations. He did suffer an injury mid-season, which affected him, but even his first half numbers as the No. 4 (3.79; 1.331) were better than a majority of the league.
We may never see one season this good from a starting staff again. But, ultimately, it led to bupkis. Despite a franchise-best record of 102-60, the Phillies were bounced in the first round by the eventual champion St. Louis Cardinals in five games - a bitter defeat that is arguably as bad as losing the NLCS in 2023 to Arizona. It was the end of the line for the greatest era in Phillies history. They wouldn't make the playoffs again for 11 years.
Let's not revisit any of that.
