Tre Johnson can give the Sixers the shooting depth they need. Does he have the upside to warrant a top-6 pick?

Freshman Tre Johnson shot his way past Kevin Durant's scoring records at the University of Texas. Does he do enough else to inspire belief in his upside with a top-6 pick in the 2025 NBA draft?

Here's what you need to know about the Texas native.

Strengths

• Johnson has traditional size for a shooting guard. At 6-foot-6, 190 pounds, some body comparisons across the NBA would be Shai Gilgeous Alexander (6-foot-6, 200 pounds), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (6-foot-5, 204 pounds) and Alec Burks (6-foot-6, 214 pounds). He has to add some muscle, but the height is where it needs to be for the position.
• He shot 39.7 percent from three at Texas on about 7 attempts per 36 minutes. His mechanics are consistent, quick from base to release and balanced as energy transfers from lower body to upper body. Johnson is an extremely confident shooter, comfortable with pulling up off the dribble to punish sagging defenders or squaring off the catch on set plays. There is no thinking based on location, he's just as quick from the corners as he is from above the break. 
• He has touch and range from various levels of the floor, capable of inflicting damage in the midrange (particularly at the elbows) and several steps beyond the three-point arc.
• Johnson is aware as an off-ball defender. He's timely with his help rotations to tag rollers on the back side of the action. He's quick to the middle of the floor to bump cutters and flashers or disrupt risky passes over the top.
• He has utility as a secondary playmaker. Johnson has decent feel for making passes as a slasher and driver.

Opportunities

• Johnson has a loose handle for a guard, which can affect his control at the rim on drives even though he's a capable finisher up close. He also has a high dribble, making Johnson susceptible to turnovers off the bounce.
• He has some bad habits as a ball defender. Johnson often guards with flat feet and in an upright stance, leaving him vulnerable to dribble penetration or reset threes on closeouts. His footwork on closeouts needs work. There are enough instances of minimal resistance to question effort.
• His lack of muscle mass makes him a liability when navigating screens. His routes are not smooth and he can get bumped off his pursuit with solid contact. The lack of muscle mass also makes him a prime target for bigger offensive players to try to bully.
• Johnson misses passing reads when he has time and space to govern a possession. It's not total tunnel vision, but he doesn't have great feel for playmaking windows as a primary ball-handler/playmaker. His passes are inaccurate too often, rendering the effort as a playmaker useless because they don't lead to great shots.
• Johnson's understanding of personnel needs to improve. There are times when he gets beat badly by a counter move or sits on a ball-handler's off hand and allows penetration with the dominant hand.
• His decision-making is erratic. Johnson will take some deep shots early in the clock or force contested shots that lack rhythm.
• While the shooting is real, there is not much creation to his game. His production is predicated on difficult shotmaking over contests. You seldom feel like he's creating real separation for himself to rise into a shot.

The film

The allure for the Sixers would be that Johnson would be one of the team's two or three best shooters the moment they draft him, should they choose to do so. His shooting gravity is real, demanding defenses to account for him at all times:

His prowess both on and off the ball would allow for a rather seamless fit for Philadelphia's offense. Johnson can start a heater in transition, pulling up to beat a reeling defense. Or, he can lace a string of jumpers off pin-downs to get going. His comfort shooting off the catch makes it easy to envision a pairing with Tyrese Maxey or Jared McCain in the backcourt.

He can manipulate defensive decision-making wherever you put him. Want to punish a blitz? Stick him on the second side of the floor to be available when the four-on-three starts. Want to make sure that an isolation doesn't draw a helper? Direct him to the strong-side corner to keep the secondary defender at home.

While the passing shows up more in shorter touch time, that skill does already exist as a compliment to his shooting. You can swing the ball to Johnson and not feel like the possession will come to a grinding halt. If teammates move around him, he will leverage his threat as a scorer to weaponize the four other guys on the floor:

There are times when his basketball IQ shines through. It's not the things that stand out to an untrained eye. It's the little details, like flashing through to create space or passing to a teammate whose defender is out of position:

Still, there are too many of these to trust him as a governing body of the offense for long stretches right now:

You can't miss those passing windows and expect to be trusted with heavy ball-handling usage.

The defensive side of the ball is where the fit is less obvious. Johnson does enough as a team defender to be viable in the overall ecosystem on that end of the floor. He has moments in which he holds his own as an individual defender, too:

As good as those instincts for tagging rollers and being in the general right spots are, he needs to be so much better as an individual defender to be an equal partner in a good NBA backcourt:

Not only do the point of attack and general resistance leave a lot to be desired, but every screen creates a defensive breakdown:

That simply cannot happen. Unless you're hedging or switching those every time, Johnson is a walking target.

Questions

The more I watched Johnson, the more it seemed that Rodney Terry schemed Texas' defense to protect him. Is that the secret that isn't so secret, that Johnson was the weak link?

Separately, was it intentional that Johnson consistently sagged far off his man when he wasn't defending the ball? Why did he do that?

Shades of: Bradley Beal, Terrence Ross and Alec Burks

Fit with Sixers

It's undeniable that Johnson's skill set would fit well with Philadelphia. As has been suggested, there would be some defensive warts to work through. But the puzzle pieces work on offense. However, that he lacks true shot creation is concerning under the context that you absolutely have to nail this pick if it ends up staying with the Sixers. The difficult shotmaking over contests is inherently a feast-or-famine skill set. When you're 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, that doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence in a star outcome.